State playing
a waiting game
Evan
Williams, trainer of State Of Play, fourth in last
year's John Smith's Grand National, is a man of infinite
patience, a virtue that might well be rewarded come
April 10th at Aintree, writes Elliot Slater.
It often requires a horse
with a touch of class to have what it takes to win
a Grand National, and Williams' lightly raced 10-year-old
still appears to have a number of good races left
in him. With this in mind, he might be worth considering
when placing your Grand National Free Bet(http://betting.ladbrokes.com/en/grand-national-free-bet).
The winner of the 2006
Hennessy Gold Cup at Newbury has only had ten subsequent
races and this term has only been since once, when
pulling up having looked in need of the outing in
Denman's Hennessy romp in November.
Ever since State of Play
ran so well at Aintree last year Evans has planned
specifically for the Grand National and for nothing
else. A couple of mistakes on the second circuit knocked
State of Play out of his stride, but he gamely came
right back into the reckoning at the second last,
only to find the front three getting away from home
on the run from the last.
But for those two errors
it is arguable that State Of Play might have gone
very close indeed to winning the greatest race of
all, and given a fair racing weight and a slightly
better round of jumping there are good reasons for
believing the Vale of Glamorgan based gelding could
have a big chance in this year's renewal.
A flat galloping left-handed
track such as the National course at Aintree is ideally
suited to State Of Play's style of running, and coming
to the race after a good break is exactly the same
tactic as was successfully employed when he won the
Hennessy on his seasonal bow.
With regular partner
Paul Moloney likely to be in the saddle once again,
the pairing look set to give supporters a very big
run for their money when it comes to Aintree
Grand National betting.
Buckler
in the Market for more National success
Bob
Buckler enjoyed his finest hour when training Niche
Market to a famous success in last year's Irish Grand
National, and the Somerset-based handler is hoping
for more big race glory when his stable star heads
to the Aintree
Grand National in April, writes Elliot Slater.
Niche
Market, a thorough stayer, had run well in the National
Hunt Chase over four miles at the Cheltenham Festival
before hitting the headlines with his shock 33/1 success
at Fairyhouse under Harry Skelton. Following a pipe-opener
at Wincanton on his seasonal return the Presenting
gelding ran an absolute cracker to finish third to
the mighty Denman in the Hennessy Gold Cup at Newbury
in November. He then failed to handle the very heavy
ground on a return visit to the track a month later.
There
is no doubt that Niche Market is a horse who is at
his best on a decent surface. With such conditions
normally prevailing at Aintree there are plenty of
reasons for optimism from the Buckler camp. Time and
again both trainer and jockey have said their horse
has no gears to speak of, but is simply a genuine
out and out galloper - just the type that is ideally
suited by the flat, galloping Aintree circuit.
As
an Irish National winner Niche Market would not be
winning out of turn subsequently at Aintree. In the
last 22 years three winners of the Fairyhouse marathon
have gone on to win at Aintree - Rhyme 'n Reason (1988),
Bobbyjo (1999), and most recently Numbersixvalaverde
(2006).
The
Grand
National betting odds make the horse a 20/1 shot
before the publication of the weights for the race
and Niche Market appears to have ticks in most of
the right boxes for those looking for a potential
winner.
King's
stayers heading straight to Cheltenham
Having
enjoyed mixed fortunes with his two World Hurdle candidates
last weekend trainer Alan King has confirmed that
both Karabak and Katchit will not be seen again on
a racecourse until the big day itself, writes Elliot
Slater.
Cheltenham's Bishops
Cleeve Hurdle was due to be the final preparatory
race for the King duo, but while Katchit took his
chance and ran well to be a brave third, Karabak was
forced to miss the race after failing to please his
handler prior to the off.
Karabak, currently 6/1
second favourite for the Ladbrokes World Hurdle behind
odds-on Big Bucks, was last seen in action when going
under by three-and-a-half lengths in the Long Walk
Hurdle. The plan was to get another run into him before
the Cheltenham Festival, but King has now decided
that his World Hurdle first string will manage just
as well without another outing.
However,
Karabak seems to prefer going on the softer side of
good, so the ground on the day could have a significant
impact on his National
Hunt steeple chase odds.
Katchit, who has failed
to score since his famous success in the 2008 Champion
Hurdle where he outstayed Osana by a length, proved
to connections that the will to win is still there
with his gutsy effort at Prestbury Park last time.
No less pleasing was the way in which the seven-year-old
Kalanisi gelding dealt with the Cheltenham hill on
his first attempt at three miles. This suggests that
what he may have lost in speed over the last couple
of seasons he has gained in stamina.
King knows what it takes
to win the Ladbrokes World Hurdle having sent out
My Way de Solzen to land the 2006 renewal. Blazing
Bailey also performed creditably on a number of occasions
in the race, including when third to the great Inglis
Drever in 2007.
Whatever
happens, the Ladbrokes World Hurdle should be the
highlight of fantastic day of Cheltenham
Festival horse racing.
Simcock's
star is in the ascendant
Despite
the news that his stable star Darley Sun has been sold
to the Godolphin operation, there is no doubt that young
Newmarket handler David Simcock is a trainer to follow
in 2010, writes Elliot Slater.
2009
was an excellent year for 37-year-old Simcock as he
sent out a career best 44 winners, including Ascot scorers
Ahla Wasahl and Spirit of Dubai. Then Darley Sun, previously
runner-up in the Doncaster Cup, romped away and justified
favouritism in the Cesarewitch in October.
On
official figures, Simcock improved Darley Sun some 40lbs
during his three-year-old career. The horse landed a
Class 5 Nottingham handicap in May, won a Class 2 Ascot
handicap in July, came second in a Group 2 in September
and then landed a nationwide gamble in one of the most
competitive handicap events in the whole racing calendar.
Doubtless
Simcock, now with more than 70 horses under his care
at Trillium Place, was disappointed to lose his stable
star but he surely understands that money talks. When
Sheikh Mohammed comes knocking at your door you'd be
a fool to resist. Darley Sun's job however has been
done.
In
advertising the skills of the former assistant to Ian
Balding and Luca Cumani, the Tiger Hill colt put Simcock's
name well and truly on the racing map and contributed
significantly to the previously unheralded yard passing
the £0.5 million mark for the season. A fine achievement.
Ahla
Wasahl is now comfortably ensconced in the luxurious
surrounds of the mind-boggling Meydan racecourse and
will take her chance at the Dubai Carnival which begins
this week. A prominent showing from the four-year-old
filly will further enhance the Simcock reputation before
a truly international audience.
I've
absolutely no doubt that, granted the necessary luck,
David Simcock will make further progress up the training
ladder this year.
Meanwhile,
all eyes will be on Denman in the coming weeks as he
continues his preparations for this year's Gold
Cup at Cheltenham.
However,
the pundits will also be keeping tabs on trials for
the Grand
National
Just
follow Lucy for juicy profits
With
the jumps game in the semi-permanent deep freeze at
the moment, there has been precious little action to
report of late. However, after scanning through a few
statistics one name, that of Newmarket handler Lucy
Wadham, has jumped out as a trainer to follow right
now, writes Elliot Slater.
I've
been something of a fan of Lucy Wadham for some time.
She is a trainer who has a relatively small string of
horses but who seems to get the very best out of them
and maintains a highly respectable strike rate year
after year. The gallant mare United was a tremendous
standard bearer for the yard in recent years winning
nearly a quarter of a million pounds in prize money
before her retirement. She also bagged a Grade 1 event
at Punchestown, two Grade 2s and a runner-up spot at
the Cheltenham
Festival last season.
Newmarket-trained
horses have managed to win their share of races on the
all-weather tracks during the Siberian freeze, suggesting
that the gallops at HQ are getting the better of Jack
Frost. This fact is borne out by the excellent form
of Wadham's few runners during this spell.
In
the two weeks to January 13th, the yard have had just
four runners, winning with 10/1 shot Queen Poline on
New Year's Eve and then having three runners at Southwell's
inaugural all-weather card. Hoback Junction (25/1) ran
a great race to be a close second to a Nicky Henderson
charge. An hour later Aviador (11/1) also performed
with credit to be a good third to a nice horse of Kevin
Ryan's. To highlight the form of the yard, Wadham's
Brixen (33/1) made virtually all the running to score
comfortably in her outing.
It
seems clear that the Newmarket handler's team is in
great form and are being kept fit and well despite the
Arctic conditions. In short, Lucy Wadham's horses are
flying at the moment, and I would strongly advise that
you take a close interest in her runners whilst the
snow is on the ground and for a little while after.
Meanwhile,
the odds for the Grand
National are really starting to look interesting
and could be worth keeping an eye on. |